Covid lockdown 5 years later: SA will be worse off if another pandemic hits – expert

South Africa will likely be “worse off” if another pandemic like the deadly Covid-19 outbreak hits the country, according to Professor Shabir Madhi.

Thursday, 27 March, marks exactly five years since President Cyril Ramaphosa placed the nation under a strict lockdown in 2020 to mitigate the spread of Covid-19.

Who could forget the family meetings when Covid-19 arrived in South Africa, with Ramaphosa beginning his address with the famous words: “My fellow South Africans… “

Impact

The deadly virus brought more than illness – it sparked confusion, fear, panic and court battles to keep places of religious worship open.

It also brought out sceptics and wannabe business people who sold everything from cigarettes to face masks at exorbitant prices. And there was personal protective equipment tender fraud.

When a Covid-19 vaccine was developed, some people faked vaccine certificates to travel overseas when travel bans were lifted.

Thousands of people lost their jobs, and hundreds of businesses folded under the strain of the pandemic, the after-effects of which are still felt today.

According to the National Income Dynamics Study (Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey), South Africa lost a decade’s worth of jobs in less than half a year of lockdown, and the economy slowed by 16.4% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the first quarter of 2020.

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Virus active

A vaccine was developed in record time, but Madhi told The Citizen the virus is still circulating.

“In terms of Covid-19 itself, it still very much circulates. It still causes some individuals to be hospitalised, especially if they have underlying risk factors for severe disease, including people in their 70s.”

SA not ready

The Dean of Wits University’s faculty of health sciences said the problem is that the country “no longer has any licence against Covid-19 because of the low demand”.

“Pfizer has decided not to pursue licenship, which is unfortunate. But more important than that is that we are probably no better prepared now than we were in 2020 if there were to be a new pandemic tomorrow,” Madhi said.

“Much of the initial sort of excitement and work investment that was taking place to ensure that you are better equipped in the future if there’s a pandemic, unfortunately, much of that has fallen by the wayside.

“In fact, if anything, because of the cutbacks that are currently being experienced in the department of health at a provincial level, the staffing has decreased, the facilities have deteriorated.

“So should there be another pandemic tomorrow, South Africa probably would be worse off compared with where we were in 2020, which is really unfortunate,” Madhi said.

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Long-term effects

Madhi added that some South Africans still suffer from the long-term effects of Covid-19.

“A minority of individuals who were infected developed long Covid-19. Unfortunately, at that stage there isn’t any available treatment. Symptomatic treatment actually manages those effects.

“It’s really a small percentage of individuals. It’s obviously unfortunate for those individuals, but from a public health perspective, it’s not putting huge pressure on our facilities,” Madhi said.

World unprepared

In January, the International Pandemic Preparedness Secretariat (IPPS) revealed that the world remains unprepared for another global pandemic.

The organisation published the fourth Implementation Report of the 100 Days Mission (100DM), an initiative aimed at ensuring global access to diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines (DTVs) within 100 days of the declaration of a public health emergency of international concern.

The report, accompanied by the second iteration of the 100DM scorecard, showed that critical gaps remain, particularly in developing and deploying diagnostics and therapeutics for diseases with pandemic potential.

Urgency

As the world continues to grapple with evolving threats like the resurgence of Mpox, Marburg and Ebola, and the spread of H5N1 with the first human fatalities recorded, the report underscored the urgency of building a robust and equitable research and development ecosystem.

The report, unveiled at an event co-hosted with the health department and the South African Medical Research Council in Cape Town, highlighted that while there have been bright spots at a national level, the world remains insufficiently prepared for a 100-day response to a future pandemic.

The 100 Days Mission Implementation report highlights three key areas for action in 2025 that would ensure the world is better prepared for future outbreaks.

Covid-19 spread

The Covid-19 outbreak started in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China and developed into a global pandemic by March 2020. By 20 March, Covid-19 had spread to 182 countries.

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases confirmed the first case in South Africa on 6 March 2020. The first cases of local transmission were announced on 18 March, and two days later, South Africa had 202 confirmed cases.

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