Are there more floods in KZN than before?

KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) has seen an alarming increase in flood events over the past decade, with experts pointing to climate change as a key contributor.

South African Weather Service (SAWS) climatologist Andries Kruger confirmed to The Citizen on Friday that flood incidents have increased based on media reports and internal assessments.

“Since 1961, annual flood reports varied between one and twenty per year up to 2021. However, since 2022, flood reports have been significantly higher,” Kruger said.

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Rainfall data supports the trend

According to the average annual rainfall data for KZN for the past 10 years, it is noted that the province has seen trends in floods becoming more intense and severe.

Rainfall totals fluctuated between 568mm in 2015 and peaked at 1 200mm in 2022.

The province has seen devastating floods in recent years, with 2022 marking a particularly catastrophic year when heavy rains led to widespread destruction and loss of life.

The 2024 rainfall figures also indicate a continued risk, with January and February alone recording 166,8mm and 54,7mm, respectively.

The past three years have shown particularly high totals, with 1 026,4mm in 2023 and 844,1mm recorded in 2024.

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Climate change and extreme weather

Kruger pointed to evidence suggesting that climate change is contributing to the increased frequency and intensity of floods.

“An assessment of daily rainfall statistics in the province over the last 100 years shows a significant increase in very high daily rainfall totals, which influence the likelihood of floods occurring,” he explained.

Kruger added that KZN’s warmer climate is also contributing to extreme weather events.

“The province is becoming warmer, and the likelihood of heavy rainfall episodes has increased, especially closer to the coast,” he said.

This aligns with a broader global trend where rising temperatures lead to more moisture in the atmosphere, resulting in heavier downpours.

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